Calendar variation model for forecasting time series data with Islamic calendar effect :

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Calendar variation model for forecasting time series data with Islamic calendar effect :

Suhartono - Nama Orang; Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember. - Nama Orang;

The aim of this paper is to develop a statistical model for explaining and forecasting the time series that contains Islamic Calendar effect, calendar variation is defined as a periodic and recurrent pattern with variation lenght period that usually caused by cultures and religions of people in a certain area. In Indonesia, the effect of the Eids holiday in many daily activities, such as transportation, inflation and consumption, is one example of calendar variations. This holiday happens on different month after three years or shift to previous month after at the same month on three tears. This paper evaluates the disadvantage of seasonal classical time series model, such as Winter's. Decomposition and ARIMA models, and develops a Calendar Variation model for forecasting time series that contain Islamic Calendar Effect. In This research, a real data about monthly sales of sardines are used as a case study. The result show that classical time series models, such as Winter's,.......yo.

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Judul Seri: -
No. Panggil: J 570/1 Mat
Penerbit: : .,
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Bahasa
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Edisi: Jurnal Matematika, Sains, dan Teknologi7, Nomor 2,
Subjek: Calendar Variaton Model
Islamic Calendar
Time Series
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